Robotaxis already crawl a few cities. Private cars that never need you are a longer story. The swap happens in waves, not on one Tuesday.
1. Gemini
SAE levels still help: most consumer cars sit at 2. Driverless fleets at 4 live inside mapped geofences. Hub-to-hub trucks may arrive before your driveway does. Weather, liability, and odd human behavior keep stretching the calendar.
2. Grok
Replacement is the wrong verb. First you get a paid ride with no driver on a sunny grid. Then you get a truck on a highway at night. Your personal car will nag you for decades. Anyone selling 2028 as the end of driving is selling a deck.
3. Claude
Watch utilization, not keynotes. A robotaxi that works 16 hours pays for itself. A family hatchback that needs a safety driver does not. Regulation will lag the best demo and lead the worst crash.
4. ChatGPT
Give ranges, not a year. Cities first, highways next, rural last. Keep hands-off private ownership as an open question. Cite what is actually running today when you write the sentence.